Samsons Traders

Prices for White Whole Cashews continued to inch up in Week 46 – there was not much change in price for other grades. Activity was limited as there was reluctance amongst buyers to pay higher prices and amongst shellers to sell at the last traded levels. Indian domestic market was quiet following the peak in activity in end Oct/early Nov before the festivals. Prices for wholes in the intra-sheller market moved up smartly in the last few days.

Price range during the week was W240 from 3.85 to 3.95, W320 from 3.35 to 3.45, W450 from 3.10 to 3.15, SW320 from 2.90 to 3.05, SW360 from 2.75 to 2.85, Splits from 2.15 to 2.25, Butts from 2.25 to 2.30, Pieces from 1.65 to 1.75 FOB.

RCN prices also inched up a bit due to buying by small processors in India and Vietnam who have run out of stock. If this continues, we will move towards the ideal situation – using up 2012 crop before 2013 crop starts. As RCN stocks are comfortable, we do not expect any big move in prices unless kernel activity – and prices – pick up significantly. Collections in Tanzania have been very slow due to inadequate financing. Market awaits news of bidding in first auction of about 5000mt.

During the last month or so, we have seen a reasonable amount of buying by USA & Europe for shipments upto Mar/Apr. Prices have moved up in about 8 weeks from a low of 3.20 to current range of 3.40-3.45 (which is slightly lower than level of Dec 2011/Jan 2012 and substantially lower than peak of 3.80-3.85 seen for few weeks in Apr/May 2012). Range of prices (offers & trades on the same day) has narrowed from 20 cents to 10 cents.

If buyers delay further buying, market will probably settle in the current range. If buying interest continues – or gains strength in the next 4 to 6 weeks – prices may move up a bit more. Downside seems to be limited unless RCN prices decline significantly which seems unlikely.

There is nothing on the horizon to change our view that market will remain firm with a reasonable possibility of some price increase in the next couple of months.

Would appreciate your comments on current situation, views + forecast on demand & market trend, any news or information affecting the market….. and your interest

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Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat
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