Cashew market was quiet in Week 6 but undertone was steady to firm. Offers were at the higher end of the recent range. Some business was done in several markets but in general buyers seemed to be wary of taking any large positions. Indian market was very quiet and there was some decline in prices for broken grades.
Price range during the week was W240 from 3.95 to 4.05, W320 from 3.40 to 3.50, W450 around 3.15, SW320 around 3.10, SW360 around 2.90, SSW around 2.45, Splits from 2.00 to 2.20, Pieces from 1.45 to 1.55 FOB.
RCN market was reasonably active with good volume of Tanzania RCN trading in 1300 to 1350 range. Mozambique RCN is trading around 900. There are reports of some trades for West Africa 2013 crops – Benin/Ghana around 1050, IVC around 950 and Nigeria around 900. We can take these only as indications.
There will not be much news or information from Vietnam during next week as they are closed for New Year holidays. Initial reports are that new crop RCN prices are around 1150 but a clear picture will be available after they return from holidays.
There are some reports that crop in most origins is early which indicates a good crop unless something goes wrong with weather in the next 6-8 weeks. If the movement from origins does start early without disruptions, shellers should be able to cover RCN at reasonable prices. And they would like to make sales in order to continue buying. That would keep kernel prices within the current range – maybe even at the lower end – unless kernel demand picks up during Feb/Mar. On the other hand, if arrivals or movements from origin do not pick up speed till April, the RCN prices will remain firm. And it could also mean temporary tightness in kernel supplies for few weeks. This will keep kernel prices at the higher end of the range.
On the demand side, general feeling is that offtake in in 2013 will be better than it was during 2012. If any large scale buying needs to be done before RCN movements are in full swing, we could see the prices crossing the top end of the recent range. BUT, if kernel activity continues to be for small volumes at regular intervals, prices will continue to move within current narrow range.
Consensus of views in the industry is that present range is “close to comfortable” for all links in the chain. If it goes too high, it will have adverse impact on demand… and if it goes too low, it will have adverse impact on collection & shelling. Another common interest is to find uses for the lower grades to reduce the differentials and remove the disparity in shelling.
Overall, there is no reason to change view on market movement for 2013 – volatility during Feb-Apr/May with a strong possibility of prices being higher in second half of the year. Specially with prices of almost all other nuts showing a firm trend.
We would appreciate your comments and views, any special news or information… and your interest.
Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
SAMSONS TRADERS
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