Samsons Traders

Cashew market was quiet for most of May.  During the middle of the month, some processors (mainly from Vietnam and some from India) reduced prices significantly. Reasonable volume was traded for Jun Jul shipments in the range of 3.70 to 3.80 for W240 and 3.15 to 3.25 for W320.  Indian domestic market is quiet and some processors sold at lower prices.   China is reported to have bought reasonable quantities in Vietnam in the last couple of weeks.

After the decline in middle of May, kernel prices have stabilised and undertone is steady.  During Week 22, price range has been W240 from 3.75 to 3.85,  W320 from 3.20 to 3.40,  W450 from 3.00 to 3.10, SW320 from 2.90 to 3.00, SW360 from 2.80 to 2,90, Butts from 2.30 to 2.40, Splits from 2.20 to 2.30, Pieces from 1.50 to 1.60 FOB

RCN prices have also come off during May due to a combination of factors – lack of buying interest from shellers as kernel market has been quiet (and soft) + funding constraints + lower quality of RCN. Current prices range from 700 to 750 for IVC and 900 to 950 for Bissau / Senegal / Gambia. Availability of RCN from West Africa is expected to be more or less the sane as 2012 but total kernel yield (specially white wholes) is expected to be lower because collectors and traders in West Africa are still not taking adequate care of RCN after collection. Like last year, shipments are likely to be spread over a longer period which is a  double edged sword – well-fed pipeline and better cash flow management but concerns about reduced yield & kernel quality.

At the INC in Barcelona in Week 21, the mood of the Cashew Sector was one of  “cautious optimism“.  Most people seemed to be comfortable with current levels. Nobody is making super profits but everyone seems to be making a decent margin.  There are indications of slight revival in retail offtake in USA & EU in the last few weeks.  Some roasters and retailers in these 2 important regions are looking at increased attention to cashews given the relative stability over the last year and prospects of continued stability with adequate supply.  However there are still concerns about the impact of the fragile economic situation.  And the issue that is the key challenge before the industry – other uses apart from the traditional snack nut. This will reduce the differential between wholes + brokens and improve the viability of the entire sector.

A word of caution : when things are comfortable, people become complacent and are caught on the wrong foot if  something unexpected happens.  And as history has taught us, markets ALWAYS do the unexpected when people are least prepared !!   So, it would be prudent to buy & sell regularly at all levels rather than wait for the bottom or the top.

Overall, there does not seem to be anything on the horizon to warrant any big price movement in the next few months.  There does not seem to be much downside for prices considering the various costs.  There does not seem to be any sign of big jump in prices considering availability is comfortable (although there may be some tightness in some grades).  We expect that market will continue to move in the current 3.20-3.40 range for the next month or two with a reasonable possibility of a small, gradual increase later in the year.

Please inform your thoughts on the market situation, views on demand and price trends, any other information or news….. and your interest.

Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
SAMSONS TRADERS
Mumbai – India
pankaj@samsons.co.in