During January, cashew market was very steady with reasonable activity in all markets. Business was done for W240 from 3.80 to 3.90 and W320 from 3.55 to 3.65 FOB for nearbys with some processors being able to sell higher to their regular buyers.
Current price levels are W240 from 3.85 to 4.00, W320 from 3.55 to 3.70, W450 from 3.45 to 3.60, SW320 from 3.40 to 3.50, Splits from 3.20 to 3.35 and Pieces from 3.00 to 3.15 FOB.
Northern crop collection will start in Feb & Mar in different countries. So far, indications are that crops will be good although arrivals may be delayed in some places. Opening prices were high in the range of US$ 1450 to 1550 (now down to US$ 1400 to 1475) compared to US$ 1150 to US$ 1300 in 2015. As mentioned earlier, the 2015 prices were already 20-25% higher than 2014 !!
Although these RCN prices are not workable with current kernel prices, processors may be forced to pay the higher prices for early arrivals because they don’t have enough RCN to process.
If kernel demand / prices don’t pick up in Feb/Mar, RCN buying interest may soften in Apr when arrivals are at peak. This could mean lower RCN prices if last year’s phenomena of competition amongst large number of traders (many non-traditional) is not repeated.
Although there has been reasonable kernel demand in the last few weeks, there is certainly a resistance to higher offers. Very limited business is being done when processors ask for higher prices – even when they are taking risk of selling forward.
There has been good growth in cashew usage in all markets during 2015 and if prices don’t move up too much, this trend should continue.
With reduction in prices of other treenuts, there is an expectation that cashew prices should come down as well. BUT, it must be remembered that for almost 3 years, cashew prices have been fairly stable in a narrow range whilst prices of other nuts zoomed up to very high levels. Also, the increase in RCN prices has reduced sheller margins. In some cases, shellers have been forced to shut plants because of the disparity.
Our feeling is that unless the RCN prices come down substantially, there is not much chance for reduction in kernel prices. If RCN prices do not come down and kernel prices do not move up, there is possibility of some period of reduced processing leading to tightness in kernel availability even though RCN supply may be adequate – time & place issue.
Overall, we don’t expect any major change in kernel price range in 2016 but there could be some volatility during Feb to Apr depending on crop news (including rumours).
Would appreciate your views on market prospects.
Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat
SAMSONS TRADERS
Mumbai – India
pankaj@samsons.co.in
http://www.samsons.co.in
Samsons Traders 
Dear Sir,
Thanks for your valuable Report..
I have one question..
India is almost consuming all the Cashew kernel produced locally and converted from imported RCN.
And the consumption is still growing up.
Will not that consumption driven demand in India, escalate the kennel prices this year and going forward.
Subsequently, the RCN prices will stay firm.
Best Regards,
JB Kar
+234-7019980032
You are right – Indian consumption certainly has major impact on prices – we cant think of any reason for major decline in prices in the short or medium term – but like any other product, long term price trend will depend on many factors including demand + supply + consumer habits etc. – overall, we expect a steady growth of the cashew sector in all origins and markets – Good business to be in !!!