Samsons Traders

During week 32, range of cashew prices has been W240 from 3.75 to 3.90, W320 from 3.20 to 3.40,  W450 from 2.95 to 3.10, SW320 from 3.00 to 3.10, Splits from 2.25 to 2.30 and Pieces from 1.50 to 1.55 FOB.

There has been a fair amount of activity in the Cashew kernel market during June/July without any change in the price range.  In the last couple of weeks, some processors have sold W320 at lower end of the range for nearbys but prices for other grades, (and W320 for forward positions) have been very steady.

There has been sporadic activity in the Indian domestic market. Availability of large wholes is tight and demand for good quality brokens is good. Prices have been steady with some upward movement for some origins and grades. There is a wide range of prices – difference of  10 to 12% between the highest and lowest traded price for the same grade on the same day.  This shows that people are willing to pay the value for the right product.

RCN market has been reasonably active. Vietnam processors have been buying regularly. Availability is adequate but it is mainly low yielding product.  Availability of good quality RCN is limited and prices for that have moved up a bit in the last two weeks.  Current price range is from US$ 700 to US$ 1000 C&F depending on origin, quality, destination, terms.

As reported earlier, we have seen a fairly stable kernel market for more than a year moving within a plus/minus 5% range – low of 3.20 and high of 3.50 FOB for W320 with most of the business being done in the 3.25-3.40 range. This indicates that market seems to have adjusted to this as the “new normal “ and unless something dramatic happens, it is unlikely that this range will be broken (on either side).

On the supply side, there are some indications that 2013 crop in Brazil should be close to normal – in any case, better than the disaster of 2012.  We feel that downside on RCN prices is limited because there is not much available for India & Vietnam till the 2014 crops (East Africa & Indonesia are less than 15% of the global production) and any further decline in prices could adversely affect collections in 2014.

On the external side, although there is no improvement in economic conditions, there are no negative developments. No bad news is good news !! In general, food prices are steady. Prices of almost all other nuts are steady or going up.

In the last few weeks, there seems to be some buying interest for longer spreads.  Since buyers are able to continuously buy for nearbys within a range, most of them are reluctant to pay premium to secure forward cover. But, some buyers have been covering portion of their requirements for 2014 at slightly higher levels.

Aug-Oct will tell us whether prices will break the 3.50 barrier in 2013 or remain in the current range.  If Asian (especially Indian) demand picks up in the next 4-6 weeks, it would keep many Indian processors away from the international market.  That might mean some increase in kernel prices when USA & EU come in to buy for last quarter 2013 and first quarter 2014 shipments.   But if the Indian demand continues to be sporadic, we will see the prices moving sideways in the current range.  A decline is possible only if Indian demand is soft which is unlikely considering that all other nut prices are substantially higher (at least in India) than 2012.

At the cost of being a “ stuck record (or CD) “ – we would like to re-state our gut feeling that downside from current levels is limited… and  market will probably see a gradual price increase later in the year or early next year.
Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat
SAMSONS TRADERS
Mumbai  – India
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