Samsons Traders

During week 36, range of cashew prices was W240 from 3.75 to 3.85, W320 from 3.25 to 3.35,  W450 from 2.95 to 3.05, SW320 from 3.00 to 3.10, Splits from 2.25 to 2.30 and Pieces from 1.50 to 1.60 FOB.

Cashew  market was  very quiet in August after a fair amount of activity during June/July.  There has not been much change in prices.  All offers at the lower end of the range (mainly nearbys) are being picked up.  Many  buyers are reluctant to pay few cents more asked by large processors but they are able to sell reasonable volumes to regular buyers.

Indian domestic market which was very quiet for several weeks has been active during weeks 35/36.  Prices for Splits & Pieces have moved up by 10-12% in these two weeks.  Processors expect demand and prices for Wholes to pick up during the coming 2-3 weeks. The depreciation of the INR since May and the volatility in the last 2-3 weeks has created uncertainty in prices of all Nuts in the domestic market but this is expected to stabilise in current range.

The RCN market is quiet. Availability for India & Vietnam in the next six months is limited to small quantities from Indonesia & East Africa. Prices from Indonesia are high and there is uncertainty about pricing and timing of movement from Tanzania. It is expected that Brazil crop will be reasonable although it may not go back to the level of 250K plus seen few years ago.

During the last 12-15 months cashew market has been in the 3.20 to 3.50 range  (with a narrower 3.25 to 3.40 range in the last six months).  When prices come to 3.20 there is very limited selling interest and when prices cross 3.40, most buyers withdraw.   This is quite different from the normal trend of declines leading to selling pressure & further decline and increases resulting in more buying & fueling further increase.  This indicates that market is comfortable in the current range and unless something big happens, the range will not be broken.

Looking at the next six months, we feel that it will be demand side which will influence the market trend and price range. Supply factors cannot have much impact since there is very little RCN (less than 25% of World Production) to be traded in the next six months.

During Sep/Oct we can expect a fair amount of buying interest from roasters for first half of 2013 and traders for shipments from Oct/Nov onwards.  Unless buyers are prepared few cents higher, selling interest will be limited to nearbys as very processors will be reluctant to sell forwards at lower levels because replacement availability is limited. If Indian demand picks up in the next few weeks as expected, it would keep many Indian processors away from the international market.

To sum up, our view is unchanged.  Downside from current levels is limited.  There is a reasonable possibility of a small, gradual rise by end of the year (with a small possibility of market crossing the 3.50 barrier). Any large increase is ruled out unless there is a big spurt in demand.

Would appreciate your news on market trend for Cashews and other tree nuts,  your views on prospects for Cashew market, any information or data…. and your interest